B2B Product Pricing Insights - March 2026

Stay ahead in B2B product pricing with easy‑to‑read insights on currency, freight and commodity market trends

March 2026 Pricing Reset: 
Establishing the Baseline Amid Supply Chain Disruption

Welcome to the March edition of B2B Product Pricing Insights. 

 

February had been characterised by stabilisation: pricing variation was narrowing, and most indicators were moving in predictable ranges. In contrast to the Business Supplies market where the uncertainty and remapping of the supply chain were accelerating. 

 

After predicting potential bumps in the road last month (and advising a review of your hedging), we’ve got full-blown disruption headlines. It is unknown if this is a short term blip or the start of a sustained supply chain and pricing problem. This edition sets out a clear ground zero dataset for the 1st March, establishing a baseline as the situation evolves. 

 

Key Headlines

  1. Short-term volatility had declined:
    1. February had been a more stable month with predictable movements in key pricing metrics. 
  2. Core data points continue to point to base product pricing falling YoY:
    1. UK producer pricing is trending at 0% change and the EU continues to report declines. 
    2. Logistics costs have fallen since the start of the year, easing landed costs.
    3. Several major commodities remain in material decline, reinforcing the underlying deflationary picture.
  3. Price pressures are in discreet sectors:
    1. Electronics pricing, although some of this will be linked to branded pricing movements rather than cost inflation. 
    2. Categories linked to European steel and Malaysian rubber are experiencing higher input costs.
  4. Looking forward:
    1. The Iran crisis dominates the short term outlook with difficulties across the supply chain: energy pricing and manufacturing, fuel pricing and logistics, and supply chain delays on availability.
    2. Higher risk not only brings price premiums but also suppresses investment and demand.
MOM and YOY comparisons. Key metric is £ and € rates against $ showing import price benefits from Asia and US.

Currency

Summary

  • The dollar recovered in February and has seen some strengthening with the uncertainty created by the Iran crisis. Therefore, the expectation is the consistent YoY currency benefit through 2025 will fade over the next two months. However, those imports will remain cheaper than January 2025. 
  • GBP/EUR rate has remained around the same trading levels since mid-2025 with UK exporters seeing a small benefit into the EU.

Freight

Drewry and Freightos Indices showing decline freight rates YOY and MOM

China > Northern Europe

China > Northern Europe Summary

  • The seasonal increases at the end of Q4 have fallen away as expected and further declines were expected as post-CNY volume picked up March. 
  • The Iran crisis has changed the dynamic considerably and expectations of price decline has become concerns over price spikes and availability. 
    • Returning to the Suez Canal route is over until after the conflict.
    • New vessel capacity may still help manage the disruption
    • Concerns over new surcharges for fuel increases, insurance or conflict. 
    • Concerns over port disruption due to the stopping of shipments to the Persian Gulf and backlogs in the supply chain.

 

Inland Freight 

Inland Freight Summary

  • UK TEG index: TEG reported the seasonal decline in transport rates as demand drops and availability rose. Notably, the index is 5% higher than last year. 
  • Diesel: UK Diesel pricing held and the Irish is delivered later but is following the UK trend. However, the Iran Crisis has fundamentally changed the pricing in the oil market and that will determine fuel pricing during the next month over local conditions and demand. 

 

Further Reading

https://theloadstar.com/gulf-conflict-chaos-carriers-slap-hefty-surcharges-and-halt-india-middle-east-bookings/#

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2026/0303/1561345-petrol-prices-middle-east-conflict-oil-gas-supply-strait-of-hormuz/

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/global-energy-crisis-looms-as-arabian-gulf-exports-halted

Commodities

Summary

  • Packaging: Kraft paper prices in China continued to decline after the December spike and overall YOY declines still sit over 10%.
  • Industrial materials: 
    • PVC: China government announcement to cancel a 13% export tax rebate supported price rises. However, the Iran Crisis is the driver of what happens next in the plastics market with risk premiums the main topic. 
    • Steel: European and Chinese pricing trends continue to diverge and the current energy spikes could move this further. 
    • Rubber: The combination of weather, supply and demand continued the upward trend in prices (+5% in January). 
  • Food commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices continue to soften from previous highs. In particular, Coffee is expected to continue to fall in contrast to some product price rises in the market.
  • Energy: As referenced last month, the escalation with Iran has created price spikes and volatility. The next release on the UK government data on energy prices is March. However, the volatility in the UK Gas and Electricity markets for producers was shown again in early March with a significant price spike (Gas and Electricity +50%). The UK is particularly vulnerable due to a lack of gas storage capacity.

Producer Pricing

Summary

  • The Iran Crisis sits over any analysis of the current position and future direction of producer prices. 
  • UK: overall price pressure remains higher than other benchmarked economies but the underlying trend for the last six months is zero inflation (Aug 25, 144.3). Note, the biggest increase in the month was in electronics (+1.3%). 
  • Euro area: PPI is essentially flat in since April 2025 (121.5).
  • China: overall continued producer deflation in China although the YoY declines have slowed more recently. Notable within the data, Paper and Paper Products dropped by 1.7% MOM.

Consumer Inflation

Summary

  • This data is a largely irrelevant for product cost pricing but is often a datapoint referenced in price negotiations, therefore, worth tracking. 
  • UK: The UK inflation rate but remains relatively high in this context but it is worth noticing the CPI Goods inflation is 1.6% (-0.6% MOM). Within this the closest category to Business Supplies is Furniture and Household Goods which is running at -0.5% (prices are falling).
  • For reference, the Ireland data was rebased to 2025 for 2026. The EU data for January is not published until March.

Final Thoughts

Even with global events creating fresh uncertainty, this remains a market where buying teams can add real value. Negotiation leverage remains, and there is clear scope to keep your business competitive on price. At the same time, risk management, product continuity and Total Product Cost will move back up the agenda as geopolitical pressures intensify. For the Business Supplies sector specifically, the ongoing remapping of the supply chain adds another layer of complexity, alongside genuine opportunity for those who are proactive.

Subscribe to the monthly newsletter and connect on LinkedIn to stay ahead of the shifts shaping the market.

Plus, if you’re reviewing your supplier options and want to reduce your costs in March through better sourcing, get in touch.

Author: Simon McLoughlin

Notes

  • Refer to source data for full data methodology.
  • Currency taken from the first day of the month or the first published date of the month. Data should never be used for currency transactions or commercial agreements.
  • Freight indices are taken as per the 1st of the month.
  • The Drewry Index is a better guide to spot rates and Freightos for contract rates.
  • The tracked cost is the container shipping price in dollars and does not include UK clearance and freight costs to a final destination.
  • TEG Index base Jan 2019
  • UK fuel pricing is Retail pricing published weekly by the UK government, data taken as per the 1st of the month.
  • Irish fuel pricing is Retail pricing published by the Irish Central Statistics Office.
  • Commodity data is taken as per 1st of the month, when that data is not available the previous available data in included. For February, consistency in dates meant some amendments from January.
  • The Steel data for China is Hot Rolled and for Europe is Hot Rolled Coil which is a form of Hot Rolled Steel usually used in Business Supplies products
  • Futures pricing for UK Natural Gas is available on Trading Economics.
  • UK PPI base 2015; EU PPI base 2021; China PPI base Same Month Last Year; US PPI base 2009
  • UK CPI base 2015; EU HICP base 2015; Ireland HICP base 2025; China CPI base 2020; US CPI base 1982-84 (with exceptions)

Sources

Bank of England; ECB: Reference Rates; US Federal Reserve; GOV.UK; Central Statistics Office, Ireland; Eurostat; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis – FRED; National Bureau of Statistics China; Drewry: World Container Index (Shanghai→Rotterdam); Freightos: FBX11 China→Northern Europe; TEG.tech: TEG Index; Trading Economics; ICE; London Metal Exchange; MacroMicro; Sunsirs; Moodys; BBC; Supply Chain Digital; GMK Center; Chemorbis

Disclaimer 

The content in this newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. The information is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice. B2B Product Consultancy Ltd assumes no responsibility or liability for errors or omissions in this content or for any actions taken based on the information provided.

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